When John Kennedy spoke in Germany in the midst of the Cold War, more than a million people followed his progress across Berlin. People leaned from windows and sat on the branches of trees to watch him pass. More than 400,000 were present to hear his speech in person. Kennedy's declaration of solidarity with the people of Berlin drew cheers that rattled windows on both sides of the wall.

When Ronald Reagan spoke at the Brandenburg Gate the situation was...  different. Both very different from the situation Kennedy had faced more than two decades earlier, and very different from the way it's presented to us by a GOP and media who have deified Reagan.  

When Reagan visited Berlin in 1987, the Soldiarity union was already seven years old. It had been formed in the strikes at the Gdańsk Shipyard, struggled through a period of martial law in which Soviet forces were expected in Poland at any moment, and lived on to begin negotiations with the collapsing communist government. Pope John Paul II had stepped back into his native country four years before Reagan came to stand next to the wall, widening the cracks that were radiating through Eastern Europe.  Gorbachev had been at the front of a crumbling Soviet leadership for two years, and it was increasingly apparent that he could not hold the faltering empire together either militarily or economically. Protests in Czechoslovakia had led to invasion in the 1960s, but this time it was obvious that the tanks weren't coming. How could they?  115,000 Soviet troops were still tied up in Afghanistan that summer, the seventh year of their costly invasion.  The cost of that war -- in men, in reputation, and in rubles -- was the heaviest straw on the back of a Soviet camel already on its knees.

In short -- no one was paying any attention to Reagan. Far from bringing out a thronging horde, Reagan's second visit to Berlin was barely noticed either by the press or the populace. There were no crowds on the street. No one even thought of climbing a tree to see him.

At the Brandenburg Gate, the streets weren't choked by hundreds of thousands eager to listen. Instead, about 20,000 Reagan supporters were brought in for the occasion, positioned to provide a backdrop, and prompted to cheer. When the speech was over, they were bused home.

In 1963, Berlin was looking to Kennedy to show that Berlin would not be allowed to fall to communism. In 1987, communism was near the end of a two decade collapse, and Reagan's speech was a media event made for America, not Berlin.  It was staged as much as pulling down the statue of Saddam. What he said was little noted by the people of Europe, and had no effect on the end of  communist control. Only in retrospect, and in the minds of Reagan's fanatical supporters, did the speech gain mystical connotations.

In 2008, Barack Obama is stopping to pay a visit in Berlin. It's too much to expect that his words will have the kind of electrifying effect that Kennedy had in 1963. The situation then was so dire, and the lines of delineation so stark, that the speech raised up not just the people of Berlin, but the people of the world. One thing is clear enough: the huge crowds already forming by the Victory Column show that there's far more interest in what Obama has to say than there was for Reagan.

The question for today is, in these times when the problems at least seem so much more complex and tangled, will Obama be satisfied with reminding us of the importance of what Berlin stood for in the past, or will he use that location as a symbol for our future?

In the House, courtesy of the Office of the Majority Leader:

FLOOR SCHEDULE FOR THURSDAY, JULY 24, 2008

House meets at 10:00 a.m.: Legislative Business
Ten "One Minutes" Per Side
Last vote predicted: 7:00 – 8:00 p.m.

H.Res. 1367 - Providing for consideration of motions to suspend the rules (Rep. Slaughter – Rules)

Suspension (1 Bill):

1.     H.R. 6578 – Consumer Energy Supply Act of 2008 (Rep. Lampson – Energy and Commerce)

H.R. 5501 - Tom Lantos and Henry J. Hyde United States Global Leadership Against HIV/AIDS, Tuberculosis, and Malaria Reauthorization Act of 2008 (Rep. Berman – Foreign Affairs) (Subject to a Rule)

H.Res. 1368 - Relating to the House procedures contained in section 803 of the Medicare Prescription Drug, Improvement, and Modernization Act of 2003 (Rep. Slaughter – Rules)

Complete Consideration of H.R. 3999 - The National Highway Bridge Reconstruction and Inspection Act (Rep. Oberstar –Transportation and Infrastructure) (Subject to a Rule)

Postponed Amendment Votes:

·         Childers Amendment

Postponed Suspension Bill (1)

1.     H.Res. 1296 – Supporting the designation of a National Child Awareness Month to promote awareness of children's charities and youth-serving organizations across the United States and recognizing their efforts on behalf of children and youth as a positive investment for the future of our Nation (Rep. Calvert - Education and Labor)

• Conference Reports may be brought up at any time.
• Motions to go to Conferenceshould they become available.
• Possible Motions to Instruct Conferees.

In the Senate, courtesy of the Office of the Majority Leader:

Convenes: 9:30am

9:30am - 10:30am equally divided and controlled between the Leaders or their designees with the Majority controlling the first half and the Republicans controlling the final half.

10:30am - 5:30pm Equally divided and controlled in 30 minute-alternating blocks of time with the Majority controlling the first 30 minutes.

1:00pm filing deadline for all first degree amendments to S.3268, the Energy Speculation bill.

3:40pm Moment of silence in remembrance of the fatal shootings of U.S. Capitol Police Officers, Officer Jacob J. Chestnut and Detective John M. Gibson. All Senators are encouraged to be on the Senate floor prior to 3:40pm.

Note the 1:00pm deadline listed above for all "first degree amendments" to S. 3268. What's a "first degree amendment?" That's the term for amendments  proposed directly to the text of a bill. An amendment to an amendment is a second degree amendment. Senate rules prohibit taking this any farther, and there are no third degree amendments permitted. See this explanation of the "amendment tree" for more information. Harry Reid is employing the strategy of "filling the amendment tree" on two bills this week: the energy speculation and housing bills discussed below.

On the Radar:

• Republican delays on the Energy Speculation bill have spilled over beyond expectations, and chewed up more floor time than anticipated, and yesterday's House action on the housing bill (H.R. 3221) puts that ball back in the Senate court with the August recess looming. That almost certainly means a weekend session is in store in the Senate, and it's also pushed consideration of the "Coburn Omnibus" (S. 3297) back into next week. Expect cloture votes on the energy and housing bills this Friday, keeping the Senate occupied with post-cloture debate over the weekend.
• The Senate Environment and Public Works Committee meets this morning at 10 to consider a subpoena to EPA Administrator Stephen Johnson, in pursuit of documentation that would expose White House interference in EPA compliance with the Massachusetts v. EPA ruling and state-based greenhouse gas standards. Good luck to Senator Barbara Boxer, as she heads into the exact same stone wall that met Henry Waxman in late June, prompting him to issue the required Stern Words.

Your one stop pundit shop.

Karl Rove says that John McCain and Barack Obama are both flip-floppers, but when McCain does it he has a good and principled reason. And it's gutsy.

Richard Allen compares Barack Obama's foreign policy experience with that of past presidents and explains why Ronald Reagan's thin resume didn't matter:

One of Reagan's most important advantages by 1980 was the widespread notion that he was but "a B-grade movie actor" -- entirely scripted. In fact, he was a voracious reader, researcher and writer, and over the span of his career had publicly addressed practically every foreign and domestic public policy issue a president would confront.

Todd Domke is afraid that Mitt Romney will buy himself the VP slot and that this would be bad because he is too pretty, too rich, too white, and besides, Democrats might call him a Mormon as payback for the "Obama is a Muslim" claims.

Donald Lambro lauds John McCain's many trips to Iraq and Afghanistan in one paragraph and says it's "a little pathetic" to think that Barack Obama's trip to Iraq and Afghanistan has any meaning in the next.

Douglas MacKinnon says that the media is unethical, liberal, in the tank for Barack Obama, and that:

The main complaint of this editor was the liberal "monolithic-thought" that permeated management at the top newspapers in the country. "Oh, sure," he stressed. "They will let the occasional conservative on the page, but a conservative will never be hired."

MacKinnon makes his complaint on the pages of the Washington Times. More later on Mr. MacKinnon's take on the advantages of being a black in America.

Jamie Barnett, the former deputy commander of the Navy Expeditionary Combat Command, takes on "don't ask, don't tell."

It is up to Congress and the president to craft policy on gay men and lesbians serving in the military, but it is the responsibility of senior military commanders to advise our nation's leaders on how law and policy affect military readiness. I raised this issue in 2003 when a task force I served on worked on the Navy's diversity strategy. Senior leaders must state plainly how "don't ask, don't tell" affects recruiting, retention and our ability to develop essential military skills. They should speak up about how it affects military honor and integrity. It is our duty, something military leaders understand well, to speak openly of how "don't ask, don't tell" injures our military and weakens our preparedness.

From the GREAT STATE OF MAINE...

If...

You don't know how to use the internet, you don't know that Czechoslovakia is no longer a country, you don't know Sunni from Shia, you don’t know much about the economy, you're uninformed about women's health issues, you don't know whether you're for or against gay adoption, stem cell research or setting a timetable for withdrawal from Iraq, you don't know what countries share a border with Pakistan, you don't know when the surge began, you no longer object to waterboarding or closing Guantanamo, you don't tell the truth about your votes on veterans issues, you said Putin was the leader of Germany, you think alternative energy means switching from regular to premium, you say you know how to win wars but you haven't actually won any, your idea of a funny joke is suggesting different ways to kill people in other countries, you want to keep giving tax breaks to the wealthy but not the middle and lower class, you confuse Somalia with Sudan, you thought voting for the Iraq war was an exercise in good judgment, you once said "I disagree with what the majority of Americans want," you think Social Security is "a disgrace," your idea of health care is apparently 'take more vitamins,' you voted to support Bush's policies 95 percent of the time last year and 100 percent of the time this year, and over the course of a single week you unfairly attacked both your opponent's patriotism and his humanity...

Then tell me again, Senator McCain: why should Americans vote for you?

Cheers and Jeers starts in There's Moreville... [Swoosh!!] RIGHTNOW! [Gong!!]

Tonight's Diary Rescue crew was Louisiana 1976, BentLiberal, dopper0189, Yashua, Avila, ItsJessMe, dadanation and srkp23.

The rescued diaries

• First-time diarist MindWideOpen brings us some perspective in an op-ed about the state of the world in Fire + Fire = More Fire. (Yashua)
• First-time diarist lyubansky examines The Racial Implications of a Barack Obama Presidency. (dopper0189)
• Lib Dem FoP pens an eloquent tribute to a courageous Royal Marines reservist who has been honored with the George Cross medal for his service in Afghanistan in For Gallantry. (Avila)
• Immigrant Punk introduces us to a new canvassing organization and how we can help in Progressive Future: The Foot-Soldiers of Your Revolution. (ItsJessMe)
• In a well-researched and well-crafted diary, Liberal Youth cites case law and precedent in asking and answering the question How Likely is it that Bush Pardons Himself? (BentLiberal)
• Stranded Wind writes how medical services for the poor are not equal in all states in Universal Health Care Has Made Me Whole and uses his own health history to illustrate the point. (Louisiana 1976)
• We all want "fair and balanced" news. This includes RKA who believes McCain deserves more media coverage. (Spoiler -- excellent snark contained in this diary - editor). (dopper0189)
• Press to Digitate presents a compelling argument for lending an ear to various opinions on saving our planet in A Carbon Future: Now 'Up In The Air'. (Yashua)
• In a diary chock-full of helpful advice, margeauxtex describes her own and her family's personal experience in I can't be broke -- I still have checks left and tells us how we can raise financially-responsible children. (Louisiana 1976)
• Eternal Hope delves into the depths of 19th Century philosophy, and argues against the practices of Christian Fundamentalism in Nietzsche: Beyond Good and Evil. (Yashua)

The regular extras

jotter has High Impact Diaries - July 22, 2008.

va dare brings Top Comments 7.23.08 'Progressive Mojo' - an oxymoron?

The reminder

Please use this as an Open Thread as well as your chance to promote your favorite diaries of the day. Respectful engagement is most welcome here. Please keep in mind that each Diary Rescue's daily purview extends from 3pm PST yesterday to 3pm PST today.

Sen. Joseph Lieberman spoke at the Hagee "summit" yesterday, as Think Progress notes:

Lieberman again drew a parallel between Hagee and biblical figures, this time saying biblical heroes, unlike the demigods of Greek mythology, "are humans — great humans, but with human failings." Lieberman said that Moses had his shortcomings, too.

"Dear friends, I can only imagine what the bloggers of today would have had to say about Moses and Miriam."

Funny you should ask:

Markos Moulitsas: "He promised us snakes would lead to our liberation.  Well, Pharaoh's still in charge.  We need More and Better Hebrews!"

Atrios:  "Moses said we'd be out of Egypt after one plague.  We're already Nine Plague Units into this with no end in sight."

Mike Stark: "I am going to go to Pharaoh's house with a big roll of papyrus to confront him about his former slaves."

Chris Bowers: "The last three polls all say that Pharaoh's vulnerable, so I believe Moses can take a more aggressive stand.  Praise Joshua and let him know."

FDL: "Take a look at these stones Miriam just inscribed for us that detail her journey -- it's not getting enough attention.  She'll be here to answer questions in our Tablet Club after sunrise on Sunday."

Howie Klein: "I'm already running pro-Aaron hieroglyphs in Moses' camp."

Matt Stoller: "If Moses doesn't beseech Hashem to deliver us something other than manna to eat, he should be primaried."

Big Tent Democrat: "Jethro has too much influence over Moses' judicial appointments."

Jeffrey Feldman: "If I'm Aaron, I'd be using this Golden Calf symbol everywhere I could.  It's the icon that coalesces the needs of the Hebrews in the wilderness."

FiveThirtyEight.com:  "I've checked out the demographics; look for the tribes of Ephraim, Manasseh, and Benjamin to make real gains in Moses' new census."

And from across the Red Sea:

NRO's Kathryn Jean Lopez: "A totally crazy Shabbas thought: Wouldn't Ramses make an awesome high-school government teacher?"

VoteVets has a new ad featuring Brandon Woods, an Iraq War veteran from New York.

In the ad, Brandon says, "What did we fight for in Iraq? I have some idea. I fought in Operation Iraqi Freedom. And "freedom" means when the Iraqi people and their Prime Minister ask us to make a plan to leave, we do. But, Senator McCain would occupy Iraq indefinitely, against their wishes. That's not what freedom means. That's not what we fought for. Senator, I thought you would know better."

Here's VoteVets' statement releasing the ad:

Senator McCain once said that if the Iraqis asked us to leave, we would have to leave. Those of us who served agree with that. Senator McCain now either has to back off his refusal to set a plan to leave Iraq, as Prime Minister Maliki requested a number of times in the past week, or tell the American and Iraqi people why he would overrule Iraq's government and turn our troops into an indefinite occupying force. Those are his only two options. Our new ad makes that clear.

The American people, the Iraqi people, the Iraqi government all think it's time for us to leave. So what does "winning" mean now, Mr. McCain? Stubbornly staying put when you're the only one who wants us to stay?

And here's the J Lo version from the movie Selena -- J Lo's breakout role.

Colorado

Rasmussen. 7/21. MoE 4.5% (6/17 results)

The Pollster.com composite is 47.6 Obama, 44.9 McCain.

Michigan

EPIC/MRA. 7/13-15. MoE 4% (5/19-22 results)

The Pollster.com composite is 47.6 Obama, 39.1 McCain.

Florida

Rasmussen. 7/22. MoE 4.5% (6/26 results)

American Research Group. 7/19-21. MoE 4% (6/13-17 results)

Those Ras numbers are a little goofy. That's a big shift in a single month, and one seen in few other states. Then we have ARG giving us the exact opposite trendline, though we all know ARG sucks you-know-what.

Thank heavens we can fall back on the composite, which is less sensitive to wild swings and outliers. And on that front, it's really, really, really tight: 45.7 McCain, 44.9 Obama.

New Hampshire

American Research Group. 7/19-21. MoE 4% (6/13-17 results)

U of New Hampshire (PDF). 7/11-20. MoE 4.5% (4/25-30 results)

Two crappy pollsters, but let's plug their numbers into the composite anyway. Currently, it's 47.4 Obama, 40.4 McCain in New Hampshire.

Ohio

Rasmussen. 7/21. MoE 4.5% (6/17 results)

Did Ras juice their (D) sample this month? Or did Obama hit upon the holy grail of Florida and Ohio swing-state politics? I don't know if I buy these particular numbers, but there's no need to. The composite actually feels quite right: 45.9 Obama, 42.4 McCain. Give Obama the twitchy, very nervous lead. Essentially, this one's tied (like Florida, like every fucking election cycle, it seems).

Update: I reversed the Ohio numbers. It's McCain that's up.

Virginia

Public Policy Polling. 7/17-20. MoE 2.7% (6/26 results)

Just float within the MoE. The composite remains razor tight: 46.7 Obama, 44.1 McCain.

Other: Monmouth University reiterates that yes, Obama is crushing McCain in New Jersey 50-36 (PDF).

Barack Obama isn't the only one facing the dirtiest of race-baiting attacks this cycle.

Rep. Mark Kirk, locked in the race of his life with Orange to Blue candidate Dan Seals, has already made several highly controversial statements about Democratic candidates this cycle, most notably this one (emphasis added):

DON WADE: In fact, yesterday in a conference call, Barack Obama's advisers were asked, "If Osama bin Laden were caught, should he get to challenge his detention in U.S. courts?" And the advisers said that -- should that right to challenge detention that they get at Gitmo based on the Supreme Court ruling, should that be applied to bin Laden? -- and Obama's advisers said, "Yes."

KIRK: Yeah, and I would much rather have a policy where if we see Obama there's a shoot-on-sight order.

DON WADE: Well, okay. I'm with you, but I don't know whether that's going to make 67 -- well it might --

ROMA: I don't think Osama bin Laden -- no one ever sights him.

Kirk apologized to Senator Obama for the alleged mix-up. But he's back to making underhanded, oh-so-subtle statements about Democrats, this time about Dan Seals himself.

The Kirk campaign is going after Seals for being "unemployed".

"After losing his bid for Congress, Seals did not return to GE Finance and was unemployed," according to a Kirk campaign memo out last week. "Near the end of the 2006 campaign, Seals paid himself $25,000 out of his campaign donor funds — an act that is legal but strongly discouraging to donors ... in May, Seals filed his 2008 financial disclosure with the U.S. House showing only $3,300 in earned income through the first quarter of the year."

Unemployed? Seals has been working as a business consultant and lecturer at Northwestern University.

Most candidates for Congress take at least a leave of absence from work to focus on their campaigns, especially campaigns as hotly contested as this one. This is hardly a secret. Candidates frequently sacrifice promising careers out of a commitment to public service; praise to those who do.

Heaven forbid we actually have candidates for office who put public service ahead of their own personal gain. I understand why that concept may be foreign to Republicans, but still.

Regardless of the stupidity and irrelevance of the quote, it is wildly inaccurate, as the Seals campaign pointed out:

But Seals’ campaign said in a new memo distributed Monday that the incumbent is resorting "to demeaning and untruthful smears" reminiscent of slash-and-burn GOP operative Karl Rove.

"Mark Kirk entirely overlooks the fact that Dan Seals has worked as a business consultant and lecturer at Northwestern since 2006 and that Seals’ wife serves in a senior level corporate position," the Seals campaign memo states. "So the question is, what does Mark Kirk find so objectionable that the Seals family, like many families in the 10th district have two working parents?"

"It is this out-of-touch mentality that has guided Kirk’s votes against economic relief for hard-hit families and also driven Seals to devote himself full-time to campaigning, because now more than ever change is needed in Washington," the memo continues.

So why on earth would the Kirk campaign seek to target Seals as "unemployed", given the fact that it isn't true?

Why would they think that dog would hunt, given Seals' stellar professional and educational resume? In addition to his consulting work and teaching at Northwestern, Seals has worked as an English teacher and Senate aide, worked in marketing at Sprint and GE Finance, and holds degrees from Boston University, Johns Hopkins, and the University of Chicago.

Who do they think they're kidding with the "unemployed" line? Who do they think would buy the idea of Dan Seals as a freeloader?

Please tell me it doesn't have anything to do with Seals being African-American, running in an affluent white district.

Because if it does, Kirk is guilty of engaging in the most shameful and vile brand of politics imaginable.

On the web:
Dan Seals for Congress
Orange to Blue ActBlue Page

Race tracker wiki: IL-10

Barack Obama has won the argument on Iraq. The latest NBC/WSJ Poll, released tonight, shows that 60% of the voters think a timetable is a good idea, and 30% think it's a bad idea. Arguments about the success of the surge are irrelevant.

This is not helping John McCain, who is floundering and (out of frustration, presumably) lashing out at Obama and taking a ton of heat for it. It's getting so bad, even Business Week says John McCain's Brand has Jumped The Shark. Ouch.

Back to the poll:
Presidential choice
6/08 (5/08) (4/08)
Barack Obama  47 (47) (46)
John McCain   41 (41) (43)

But Obama’s lead over McCain expands to 13 points when third-party candidates Ralph Nader and Bob Barr are added into the mix — with Obama at 48 percent, McCain at 35 percent, Nader at 5 percent and Barr at 2 percent. However, it’s important to note that the pro-Obama vote (48 percent) and anti-Obama vote (adding up to 42 percent) is consistent with the result from the two-way match up.

link

51% of voters are focused on what kind of president Obama will be vs. 27% for McCain.

55% want change, even if less experience, vs 40% for stability

Obama has greater risk (55%) vs. McCain (35%).

Obama is more mainstream (60% agree) compared to McCain (45%), but McCain has shared values lead.

43% of McCain supporters see him as the lesser of two evils vs. 22% for Obama.

Tony Blankley (MSNBC) reminds us this is eerily similar to 1980, and Obama is Ronald Reagan... the public wants him but won't commit until late.

Excited to vote for your candidate? 44% to 14% (guess who?)

In addition, the Republican Party’s brand is in tatters. President Bush’s approval rating is at 30 percent, up two points from last month’s poll. Also, for the 25th consecutive survey, more view the Republican Party negatively (48 percent) than positively (31 percent). By comparison, the Democratic Party has a 43-37 percent positive-negative rating.

Furthermore, just 13 percent in the poll believe that the country is headed in the right direction. That’s the lowest percentage on this question ever in the history of the NBC/Journal poll. [bolded mine] In July 1992 — the year that challenger Bill Clinton beat incumbent President George H.W. Bush — 14 percent said the nation was on the right track.

Perhaps more ominous for McCain, by 55-40 percent, voters say they prefer a presidential candidate who will bring greater changes — even if he’s less experienced and tested — to an experienced candidate who would bring fewer changes to existing policies.

"McCain can’t make this election about experience. Re-running Hillary’s campaign isn’t going to be enough," Newhouse says, referring to Sen. Hillary Clinton, whom Obama edged for his party’s nomination.

Bottom line: Obama holds the lead (no tightening), and attracts the most attention, excitement and interest. However, he has not made the sale as of July. That doesn't mean he won't. The Obama World Tour shows he can look Presidential. McCain will have to shake things up to win. That doesn't mean he can't, but it's not clear he's got it in him to do so.

But you knew that. The poll is merely affirmation.

I likes me some war, my friends, my friends.

Via Politico:

UPDATE: Just over an hour after finalizing plans to visit an oil rig tomorrow, the McCain campaign has cancelled the visit.

"The meeting with Governor Jindal has been postponed and we are cancelling the trip to the rig due to weather," said spokesman MIchael Goldfarb.

McCain will now fly from Pennsylvania to Ohio.  He had originally planned to fly tonight from Pennsylvania to New Orleans to be staged there for morning departure to the rig.

The campaign declined to comment any further about the quick decision to spike the trip other than to cite the weather.

Of course, we could take the McCain campaign at its word (ha!), and assume the cancellation is due to Hurricane Dolly.

Then again, it could be attributable to the unfortunate timing of an oil rig photo op in the Gulf region on top of this semi-breaking news:

(CNN)  -- The U.S. Coast Guard has closed 29 miles of the Mississippi River from New Orleans southward after a tanker and a barge collided, spilling more than 400,000 gallons of fuel oil into the river.

The river, a major shipping route between the Midwest and Gulf of Mexico, could be closed for days during the cleanup, the Coast Guard said Wednesday.

Or the back-handed slap delivered by Bobby Jindal today, long touted as a possible VP candidate for McCain:

Wednesday morning, Jindal made perhaps his strongest statement yet regarding running for Vice President.  Appearing on "FOX and Friends", Jindal said "I'm not going to be the vice presidential nominee or vice president."

Or maybe McCain decided to just stop fighting the media juggernaut surrounding Obama's overseas trip and lay low for a while. At this point, not saying anything or doing anything seems to be the wisest campaign strategy going, given his recent newsmaking.

Emptywheel has Karl Rove's answers to questions from the ranking Republican on the House Judiciary Committee -- you know, the committee before which Rove won't actually go to testify. It's written questions, no follow-ups, so basically Rove's dream scenario.

Promising follow-up, emptywheel offers this initial reading:

Smith repeatedly asks Rove whether or not he ever communicated with:

Department of Justice officials, State of Alabama officials, or any other individual about the investigation, indictment, potential prosecution, prosecution, conviction, or sentencing of Governor Siegelman

And repeatedly, Rove answers that he has never directly or indirectly communicated with:

Justice Department or Alabama officials [] about the investigation, indictment, potential prosecution, prosecution, conviction, or sentencing of Governor Siegelman

Rove would not make the same denials about talking to "any other individuals" he did about DOJ and Alabama officials.

Now to be fair to old Turdblossom, Rove does add this caveat, repeatedly:

nor have I asked any other individual to communicate about these matters on my behalf

But that's not the same thing as answering whether he spoke to anyone about it all.

Karl Rove being less than fully honest. Big surprise. We know emptywheel (and Kagro X, and other bloggers) will follow up on this. Will Congress?

CO-Sen: After a series of polls showing Democrat Mark Udall with a 9-10 point lead over Republican Bob Schaffer, here's the first one in a while showing a closer race. From Rasmussen:  

Udall isn't likely to win by 12-15 points, or anything like that. Despite myriad missteps and scandals from Schaffer, and despite a solid campaign for Udall so far, this race is far from over. Nevertheless, the edge is Udall's, and has been since the race began.

NC-Sen: Elizabeth Dole's rather shocking attempt to get the high-profile AIDS relief bill named after her predecessor, the late Sen. Jesse Helms, has gone up in smoke.

Sen. Elizabeth Dole, R-N.C., introduced an amendment to add Helms, the N.C. Republican who died July 4, to the title of a $48billion bill passed Wednesday in the Senate that triples spending for a much-acclaimed program that has treated and protected millions in Africa and elsewhere from the scourges of AIDS, malaria and tuberculosis.

Her measure, though, didn't get a vote. The legislation was already named after two other lawmakers who fought against the spread of AIDS, former Reps. Henry Hyde, R-Ill., and Tom Lantos, D-Calif.

Dole's amendment came as a surprise, of course, because Helms spent a good bit of his life attacking AIDS victims:

Helms changed his view on foreign relief programs late in his Senate career, and teamed up with rock star Bono to help suffering populations overseas.

What many critics won't soon forget are Helms' comments like this one about people with AIDS in his own country: "There is not one single case of AIDS in this country that cannot be traced in origin to sodomy."

This, too:

Dole's amendment, quietly introduced Monday, was first reported Wednesday by the Huffington Post. The news quickly spread on the blogosphere, where there was a proliferation of Helms quotes – such as 1995 comments to The New York Times, which quoted him as saying people got AIDS because of "deliberate, disgusting, revolting conduct."

Dole's legislative career in the Senate has been underwhelming by any analysis. And if a failed amendment to get an AIDS relief bill named after the most controversial politician in North Carolina's recent history is her best attempt at padding her resume, it may be time to consider someone else.

NH-Sen: Plenty of movement in the Jeanne Shaheen - John Sununu race. Two polls out, both from pollsters of questionable reliability. From ARG:

Too good to be true, right? So witness UNH:

Too bad to be true? It is. MissLaura has a healthy dose of skepticism about the partisan samples used in the UNH polling, which she articulates at Blue Hampshire. The UNH poll, FWIW, showed Paul Hodes losing by 20-25 points, in late 2006.  

Gazing at these polls, CQ Politics shakes their head, shrugs their shoulders, and moves the race to "Leans Democratic".

MS-Sen: For a race widely considered a tossup, or leaning ever so slightly Republican, Mississippi's Senate race has been relatively quiet. But Mississippi remains one of the closest Senate races in the country in polling, and Barack Obama's campaign apparently intends to seriously contest the state, expecting to increase the black vote in Mississippi by over 30%.

The Politico has an excellent article noting that even if this does not turn Mississippi to Obama, it could win the election for Musgrove.

It is possible for a Mississippi Democrat to win in a statewide election, but it would likely require 30 percent of the white vote along with nearly the entire black vote. In 2003, Musgrove lost his reelection bid for governor to current Gov. Haley Barbour, a Republican. Musgrave took about 22 percent of the white vote, and lost the election 53 percent to 46 percent. In 1999, when Musgrove beat Republican gubernatorial nominee Mike Parker in one of the closest races in Mississippi history, he performed even better among white voters, running well ahead of typical Democratic performance in Northeast Mississippi, a Republican stronghold.

The formula that has sometimes worked for Mississippi Democrats is directly at odds with Obama’s strategy for putting Southern states in play. Obama and his aides have made the case that Obama could increase black turnout so substantially — by 30 percent or more — that Southern states with large African-American populations would become competitive even without much of a change in the white turnout. But the math here is much harder than the Obama campaign asserts. If you take the 2004 presidential election results, increase the black vote by 30 percent and assume that the white vote stays the same, Obama would still lose Mississippi by more than 100,000 votes. And most analysts think that a 30 percent increase in the black vote is extremely optimistic. Obama will surely draw African-Americans to the polls in record numbers, but even a 10 percent to 15 percent increase in African-American votes would be historic. Add to that Obama’s problems in attracting white Mississippi voters even in the Democratic primary, where he attracted only a quarter of white Democrats.

What Musgrove hopes is that he can have the best of both worlds. He can run as a more conservative Democrat picking up moderate white voters, just as Travis Childers did in the House special election to replace Roger Wicker. But Musgrove might also benefit from Obama energizing and turning out the black vote even while Musgrove keeps his distance from the presidential nominee.

Musgrove is running even in the polls with incumbent Republican Roger Wicker, so even a small increase in the black vote in Mississippi would be a tremendous boon to Musgrove's campaign.

House Races

AK-AL: Kos wrote last night on the burgeoning scandal surrounding Alaska Governor Sarah Palin.

Long story short, Palin apparently had a personal vendetta against a state trooper (and her former brother-in-law), Mike Wooten,who had been embroiled in a nasty divorce from Palin's sister. Over 25 investigations and complaints were filed against him in an attempt to get him fired. All were dismissed save one, which was deemed not serious enough to sack him.

Allegedly, Palin subsequently pressured public safety commissioner Walt Monegan to fire the brother-in-law. Monegan didn't, and was subsequently fired himself.

Finally, Monegan's replacement, Chuck Kopp, is highly controversial in his own right, having previously been charged with sexual harassment by an employee.

Palin is not up for reelection until 2010, but her lieutenant governor Sean Parnell represents the biggest threat to a Democratic pickup in the House race. Parnell's main claim to fame is his association with the formerly universally popular Governor, and this scandal may sink him. From Kos:  

Parnell has tied his entire campaign thus far to Sarah Palin, using her popularity to boost his efforts. Today, word is that Parnell has pulled all ads with references to Palin. Her brand is mud.

Yet without her, Parnell isn't shit either. He's dead in the water. (Don) Young will win his primary in several weeks, and prove easy pickings for the Democratic nominee.

Meanwhile, Palin was considered the fallback candidate in case Stevens got indicted. She no longer looks so hot. Nor can she be an asset for Stevens, Young, or any other Republican up and down the ballot in her state. Alaska's most popular Republican has essentially been neutralized. The "popular Republican" is now extinct in Alaska.

This could indeed kill Parnell's campaign, or seriously damage it. Parnell was Palin's golden boy; Palin's good name is his good name.

ID-01: Bill "Absolute Idiot" Sali has screwed up yet again. This time, he is one full week late in filing his FEC reports. His campaign claims technical difficulties:

I am unable to file the 2nd quarter 2008 FEC report, as FEC technical support is still attempting to fix the Sali for Congress data file.  I first attempted to upload a file to the FEC site on June 6. I again tried on June 9, using the new FEC software update, without success. I then sent FEC technical support a copy of the Sali for Congress FEC file. FEC technical support is still attempting to fix the file so that it may be uploaded. I am in regular contact with FEC technical support and the FEC analyst, in an effort to resolve this matter.

Thing is, that was a full week ago. The response from Democrat Walt Minnick's campaign:

"Frankly it is outrageous that he has not filed this report, the people of Idaho deserve to know who his campaign contributors are. And for him to think that he can get away from not filing his federally mandated financial disclosure to the American people and Idahoan is really outrageous," said Foster.

AZ-03: The Arizona Democratic Party has a new ad opposing John Shadegg, on behalf of Orange to Blue candidate Bob Lord:

TX-10: Democratic candidate (and Netroots Nation attendee) Larry Joe Doherty now sports the endorsements of the NEA, the Texas State Teachers' Association, and the national and state branches of the American Federation of Teachers. From a press release:

With membership of more than 4.6 million educators nationwide, these four front-line organizations represent the teachers who are working hard in our classrooms everyday. In fact, in 2007, McCaul received an 'F' rating from the NEA due to his lack of support for 'quality public education.'

"Larry Joe Doherty will take the fight to Washington on behalf of our educators, students and schools," said Louis Malfaro, President of Education Austin.  "We are proud to support a candidate who understands that a strong commitment to our public education system is the key to long-term economic health for Texas kids, families, and businesses."

Doherty is committed to working with these organizations to fix No Child Left Behind (NCLB). Republican incumbent Michael McCaul has voted to strip $806 billion in vital funding from the program (HR 3010, 6/24/05, Vote #321).

"I will be a dependable voice for our nation's teachers and students instead of a rubber stamp for a party whose policies are out of touch with the American people," said Doherty.

LA-07: Democratic candidate Don Cravins, Jr., was just added to the DCCC's Emerging Races list:

"In the short time that Don Cravins has been in the race, he's put together a solid campaign and shown that he is committed to making things easier for middle class families in Southwest Louisiana," said DCCC Chairman Chris Van Hollen.

Cravins is the 21st candidate named to the DCCC's Emerging Races program. In each of these races, Democratic candidates have generated excitement in their districts for their campaigns for change.  As these campaigns continue to develop and demonstrate increasing strength, candidates will have an opportunity to qualify for the DCCC's Red to Blue program.  

SD-AL: Congratulations to Rep. Stephanie Herseth Sandlin and former Rep. Max Sandlin, who are expecting their first child together in December.

On the web:

Orange to Blue ActBlue Page

Seriously painful, arguably pathetic:

WASHINGTON (CNN) — Barack Obama is not the only presidential candidate who will be front-and-center in Berlin this Thursday. Well, sort of.

In the latest effort to counter-program Obama’s tour of Europe and the Middle East, the Republican National Committee will air radio ads promoting John McCain’s candidacy in three different Berlins: Berlin, New Hampshire; Berlin, Pennsylvania; and Berlin, Wisconsin.

Why don't McCain's campaign people just give Obama his week, let their candidate rest up, and come up with some brilliant PR moves next week when Obama's settled back in at home? Every day reveals more desperation, whining and stupid "pay attention to me!" gimmicks. This can't be helping the undecideds move his way, can it?

Good news!

I just got word from my publisher that the release date for my forthcoming book, Taking on the System, has been moved up two weeks to August 20. James Wolcott liked the book:

A guerrilla manual for political insurgency, a motivational guide to personal action, Markos Moulitsas Zuniga’s Taking on the System lays out the map on how to transform social networks into a power grid and send the funeral directors of our archaic institutions packing. Written with the high-velocity enthusiasm for a healthy shellacking that has made Daily Kos the Battlestar Galactica of the blogosphere, Taking on the System, studded with practical tips and inspirational tales, teaches and preaches how to turn your voice into a force-multiplier without losing your soul in the process. This is a book that conservatives could learn from too, if they could tear themselves away from Rush Limbaugh long enough to take a jab at something new.

--James Wolcott, Vanity Fair columnist and author of Attack Poodles (Miramax)

I passed out a bunch of press galleys to people at Netroots Nation, including many a prominent diarist. Hopefully they start sharing what they thought about the book with us. And as always, you can pre-order the book to ensure you get it at the earliest possible time.